R.T.W.L. (Ruud) Hurkmans: “Effects of climate variability and land use change on the water budget of large river basins“

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15 Jun 2009 13:30
Unit: Wageningen University
Location: Aula, building 362, Gen. Foulkesweg 1, Wageningen
Organisation: Wageningen University
Promotor: prof.dr. P.A. Troch (Hydrology and Quantative Water Management)
Promotor: Prof.dr.ir. R. Uijlenhoet

 Climate change is expected to have a large influence on the water budget of large river basins. Increasing extreme precipitation events, longer dry periods and decreasing buffering through snow can lead to more frequent and severe peak flows, as well as more severe droughts. Land use changes can reinforce these developments through urbanization or counteract them through, for example, deforestation. In this research, the effects of both climate and land use changes on discharge in the Rhine basin have been quantified with a high spatial resolution. To this end, a spatially detailed hydrological model has been implemented, which simulates the interactions between land and atmosphere in a physically-based way. Using this model, climate and land use change scenarios, which are based on different societal developments and the CO2-emissions related to them, have been simulated. Results show drastic changes in the discharge regime of the Rhine: more discharge and higher peak flows in spring and, especially towards the end of the century, more frequent and severe streamflow droughts in summer. Land use changes, on the other hand, have only a modest impact on the discharge at Lobith, but can have considerable effects locally.
Title thesis: “Effects of climate variability and land use change on the water budget of large river basins“
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