Importing soybean and maize into the EU is going to become more difficult. This is the conclusion of a quick scan by LEI, into the economic consequences of the current EU policy for genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The cultivation of GMO crops is growing worldwide. As a result, conventional crops are becoming scarcer and more expensive. In comparison to countries that export large amounts of GMO products, such as the US, the EU approval process for GMOs is relatively slow. This is going to cause problems in the future.
In the last ten years, the cultivated area of the two main genetically modified crops, soybean and maize, has grown considerably. About two-thirds of soybeans grown around the world are genetically modified varieties, and, for maize, this share is one-quarter. These shares are growing each year.
Soybean and maize are important commodities for the food and feed sectors. The European food sector still relies almost exclusively on conventional, in other words not genetically modified, soybean and maize. The availability of conventional soybeans is not an immediate problem, although the price is likely to rise even further given that GM soy is less expensive and easier to cultivate. The possible mixing of conventional soybean and traces of GM soybeans not yet approved by the EU does currently present a problem. In terms of this issue, the EU follows a no-tolerance stance, meaning that no level of mixing is permitted. As a result, a shipment will not be permitted into the EU if such mixing is detected. This can lead to problems for the supply of raw materials when there are few or no alternatives available.
For animal feed, the EU is far from being self-sufficient. 77% of the necessary proteins are imported. The majority of this is (EU-approved) GM soybean and maize (or maize products). These imports are processed in the EU into animal feed and the resulting meat and dairy products appear in the EU market. The increase in GMOs not (yet) approved in the EU, together with the no-tolerance policy, also affects the food industry. In the short term, supplies are not directly threatened, but it is more difficult to assess the implications in the longer term, even just considering the shifting trade flows, for example towards Asia. This is reducing the relative importance of the EU market. Problems in raw material supply could then lead to a situation in which the EU imports meat from countries where livestock is fed on materials not approved in the EU.
Report EU policy on GMOs; A quick scan of the economic consequences
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