If the Netherlands aims to supply 10% of the total demand for fuel with biofuels by 2020, it will be unable to satisfy the criteria established by the commission for sustainable biomass production. This was the conclusion of the report for the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) written by researchers from Wageningen UR and their colleagues at the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and Ecofys.
Supplying 10% of the fuel demand in the Netherlands with biofuels will require between 600,000 and 800,000 ha of land, almost equal to the total arable crop production area in the country. ‘This means that the Netherlands will be almost entirely dependent on the import of biomass for biofuels’, stated the researchers. This area could also be used to produce food for 2.7 to 3.6 million people with a European diet. The researchers expect increased competition between biofuels and food production, also because an insufficient area of marginal land will he made suitable within 10 years for the cultivation of biomass for biofuel. Partly as a result of this competition, food prices will increase between 10 and 30%, with severe fluctuations in prices.
Under the leadership of researcher Dr. Prem Bindraban (Plant Research International, Wageningen UR) the authors predicted the agricultural developments, conversion technologies, investment needs and socio-economic consequences for the new biofuels sector in 2020. They predicted that more agricultural land will be needed to meet the increasing demand for food. In addition, they estimated that the second generation biofuels – bioethanol from cellulose – could meet only about 20% of the demand for biofuels in 2020; this is because this technology has not yet been fully developed and requires major investment. This demand for agricultural land is making an increasing claim, directly or indirectly, on nature areas.
The contribution of biofuels to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases is very small. Moreover it is very expensive. The additional area required for energy crops will require more land to be brought into production and will lead to increased carbon emissions; this will tend to worsen the climate problem rather than help alleviate it.
Small-scale development of energy crops can serve as a catalyst for rural development – the biofuels can be used for improving transport and for powering irrigation pumps – but only large-scale production can lead to a viable market position for biofuels.
In June 2008, Jacqueline Cramer, who previously chaired the commission that established the criteria for sustainable biomass production, promised the Second Chamber of Parliament that the target of 10% biofuels by 2020 would be reviewed regarding its sustainability. / Albert Sikkema
The above article was written by the editorial staff of Resource, the weekly newspaper for Wageningen University and Research Centre. For more information, contact the press and science information officer of Wageningen UR, e-mail: pers.communicatie@wur.nl or the editorial staff of Resource, e-mail: resource@wur.nl. See the archived articles at www.resource-online.nl