19 May 2008
Unit:
LEI
Europe will begin to produce more and more food for other parts of the world. This was one of the conclusions of the report ‘Landbouwgronden in Europa; analyse van en visie op gewasopbrengsten, bevolking en milieu’ (Agricultural lands in Europe; analysis of and strategy for crop yields, population and the environment). The analysis was conducted by the LEI (part of Wageningen UR) on behalf of the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV).
Population and food
Fertile agricultural lands play an important role in the world food supply. The importance of these lands will only become greater in the future. According to expectations, the world population will grow from 6.4 billion now to 9.3 billion in 2050. The largest population increases are predicted in the Middle East and Africa (doubling or tripling) and in South Asia. For Europe and Japan, a slight decline in the population is expected.
In recent years, the per capita food production in the world has increased slightly (4%). This was possible due to a productivity increase of 7% on existing agricultural land and due to a 2% expansion of the production area, often at the cost of tropical rain forest.
Agricultural production area
The agricultural production area in the Netherlands is expected to decline by 4% during the next 30 years. During the last 30 years, this decline was 8%, amounting to 5,000 ha per year. The most important factor for the increasing use of space for non-agricultural purposes is the increased population resulting in more urbanisation, nature reserves/parks and recreation areas. A cautious prognosis is that in 30 years there will be approximately 80,000 ha less agricultural land in the Netherlands than there is now.
Major differences in productivity
There are very large differences in the productivity of agriculture and horticulture between the various countries and continents. For example, the yields per hectare of wheat and potatoes in the Netherlands and the neighbouring countries are often 2.5 times higher than the average in Europe. During the past 10 years, the countries in Europe that already had high productivity were able to increase their productivity even further, but in other countries there was little increase. Besides sufficient water and good weather conditions during the growing season, the use of artificial fertilisers and crop protection agents has had a positive effect on crop yields.
Utilise expertise
Agricultural lands in Europe will be increasingly used for supplying food to other parts of the world. This is primarily due to a shift in the distribution of the world population across the continents. Due to the growing world population, it is important that the expertise level for producing more increases everywhere. Higher yields per hectare are needed. Europe and the Netherlands can and must play an important role in the future, not only as producers of food, but also as disseminators of expertise on food production and energy.
|