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11 Sep 2009
Unit:
LEI
 Scale increase in the agricultural sector is set to continue apace in the long term. In this context, technological innovation offers opportunities to meet rising social demands. This is the conclusion of a study conducted by Wageningen UR for the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV).
The first part of this report addresses the prospects of the agricultural sector in the Netherlands until 2020. Which developments and uncertainties should be taken into account? After presenting a reference scenario to describe the results, the report adds some sensitivity analyses. These refer to variants related to agricultural and trade policy, the oil price and the derogation of the Nitrate Directive. The second part of this report gives an overview of technological developments that provide opportunities for the agricultural sector and/or can take away impediments.
The report shows that the number of farms and workers are continuing to decline and that the remaining farms are becoming bigger. This not only applies to supply, processing and distribution but also to primary agriculture and horticulture. However, in 2020 it will still be fairly unusually that (primary) production farms have a large work force.
The internal market and associated European agricultural policy are important limiting conditions for the export-oriented sector. Knowledge and innovation are crucial for strengthening its competitive position. It is also desirable that governments apply their spatial and investment policy in such a way that the economically essential scale increase is facilitated responsibly and sustainably.
Summary 09-027 Prospects for the agricultural sector in the Netherlands
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