Marten Scheffer, professor of aquatic ecology at Wageningen University, will receive this year's Spinoza Prize for his work on the stability of complex systems, ranging from ponds and coral reefs to the climate system and societies. This week his book on critical transitions will be published, which he wrote for a broad readership.
Scheffer’s theme of critical transitions ('tipping points') is topical in many areas. The critical transition always comes as a surprise after a longer period of calm. Such apparent stability can be deceptive. For example, the climate of the Earth was exceptionally stable during the past ten thousand years. The development of human civilisation corresponds exactly with this stable period. But now it appears that the era of peaceful climate is over. The climate is changing, and surprises are likely.
Analysis of abrupt climate changes in the distant past has shown the importance of tipping points: critical transitions where a change amplifies itself and pushes the system towards a new regime. In his book, Scheffer shows that such tipping points also exist in our brains, ecosystems and financial systems. You can compare it with a boat that is being loaded by stacking the cargo on the deck. The balance is becoming unnoticeably more unstable, until a small disturbance can cause the boat to capsize. We usually do not know where the tipping points are located in complex systems. However, we do know that they exist and sometimes we understand how they work.
Resilience
According to Scheffer, we can do two things with this knowledge. First, we can work on building resilient systems. Resilience is most beneficial to society in the long-term, but it generally requires sacrifices in short-term efficiency and yield. Pursuing resilience therefore requires a long-term vision and the political courage to truly invest in this process.
The second important application concerns the opposite of resilience: cases where rapid change is desirable. One example is a family escaping from the 'poverty trap'. The provision of a microcredit loan is sometimes not enough to produce a self-amplifying change towards an improved state.
The process of changing an attitude in society is also notoriously difficult to get started. This is especially the case when global conditions are changing as drastically as they are now; due to such an attitude stalemate, the society becomes ill adapted to the new conditions. In his book, Scheffer shows that scientific knowledge about ‘how to improve things’ is important, but is usually not enough. The role of charismatic leaders is essential during such periods, and exceptional events can also catalyse a shift in attitude.
Publication data: Critical Transitions in Nature and Society.
Marten Scheffer 2009 Princeton University Press http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8950.html