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21 May 2010
Unit:
Wageningen UR
CO2 emissions are still rising substantially. Limiting global warming is not realistic. The current agreements on CO2 emissions mean the earth's temperature is set to increase by more than two degrees. That is the opinion of a team of scientists, which includes ESG visiting researcher Michiel Schaeffer, as presented in an article in Nature at the end of April.
Schaeffer and his colleagues at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research worked out what the effect on global warming would be of the current promises regarding CO2 emissions in 2020. These promises were made following Copenhagen. As at the start of April, 76 countries representing 80 per cent of global CO2 emissions had made public their emissions targets. Schaeffer and his colleagues are not impressed by their intentions. 'The lack of ambition expressed in these promises is amazing', they write in Nature, with all due respect for the positive examples - in this case Japan and Norway.
Three degrees
According to the scientists, the current promises will lead to levels of emissions in 2020 ten to twenty per cent higher than at present. In other words, we will be producing more CO2, not less. As a consequence, the aim of limiting global warming to two degrees by the end of the century is unrealistic.
Based on the current promises, there is even a large chance (fifty per cent) that the earth's temperature will have risen by three degrees in 2100. That is why the scientists are advocating rapid, drastic steps to reduce CO2 emissions. As an illustration: even if emissions are halved by 2050, there is still a fifty per cent chance of global temperatures rising by two degrees. / Roelof Kleis
The above article was written by the editorial staff of Resource, the bi-weekly newspaper for Wageningen University and Research centre. For more information, contact the press and science information officer of Wageningen UR, e-mail: pers.communicatie@wur.nl or the editorial staff of Resource, e-mail: resource@wur.nl. See the archived articles at resource.wur.nl
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